Company Introduction
Headquarters Location: Seattle, Washington, USA
Core Business Summary: Amazon is a multinational technology company that focuses on e-commerce, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence.
Overview
$221.78
33.84
6.55
$2,365.26B
Company Overview
Industry Sector: Technology
Industry Trends
Industry Growth: The global e-commerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.7% from 2022 to 2027.
Key Demand Drivers: Increasing internet penetration, growing adoption of smartphones, and rising demand for online shopping
Cagr: 14.7
Major Competitors: Walmart, Alibaba, Microsoft, Google
Financials
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $107.01B | $135.99B | $177.87B | $232.89B | $280.52B | $386.06B | $469.82B | $513.98B | $574.79B | $637.96B |
| YoY % | +27.1% | +30.8% | +30.9% | +20.5% | +37.6% | +21.7% | +9.4% | +11.8% | +11.0% | |
| EBITDA | $8.51B | $12.30B | $15.58B | $27.76B | $37.37B | $48.08B | $59.31B | $54.17B | $85.52B | $123.82B |
| YoY % | +44.5% | +26.7% | +78.2% | +34.6% | +28.7% | +23.4% | -8.7% | +57.9% | +44.8% | |
| FCF | $6.65B | $9.40B | $6.41B | $17.30B | $21.65B | $25.92B | $-14.73B | $-16.89B | $32.22B | $32.88B |
| YoY % | +41.4% | -31.8% | +169.9% | +25.1% | +19.7% | -156.8% | -14.7% | +290.8% | +2.0% | |
| EPS | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 2.09 | 2.15 | 0.97 | 2.90 | 5.53 |
| YoY % | +316.7% | -8.0% | +334.8% | +14.0% | +83.3% | +2.9% | -54.9% | +199.0% | +90.7% |
Growth Drivers
Historical Growth Drivers: Expansion into new markets, strategic acquisitions (e.g., Whole Foods, Zappos), and investment in emerging technologies like AI and cloud computing
Future Growth Drivers: Growing demand for cloud computing, increasing adoption of voice assistants, and expansion into new industries like healthcare and finance
Examples: AWS revenue grew by 30% in 2022, Alexa's market share increased by 20% in 2022
Market Position
Competitive Position: Leader in e-commerce and cloud computing
Estimated Market Share: 38% of the US e-commerce market
Technological Moat: Strong brand recognition, large customer base, and continuous innovation
Strengths
- Diversified revenue streams
- Strong brand recognition
- Continuous innovation
- Large customer base
Weaknesses
- Cyclical exposure
- Regulatory risks
- Competition
- Dependence on third-party sellers
Valuations
Valuations for AMZN
| Formula | Bull | Base | Bear | Margin of Safety |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Graham | $383.18 | $252.18 | $186.68 | 12.1% |
| Peter Lynch | – | $152.30 | – | -45.6% |
Rule of thumb (Lynch):
PEG ≈ 1 → Fairly valued
PEG < 1 → Undervalued (growth cheap relative to earnings)
PEG > 1.5 → Overvalued
Outlook
Opportunities: Growing demand for cloud computing, increasing adoption of voice assistants, and expansion into new industries
Risks: Cyclical exposure, regulatory risks, and increasing competition
Forecast: Amazon's revenue is expected to grow by 15% YoY for the next 3-5 years, driven by growth in cloud computing and e-commerce
Stock Price Performance
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 29.93 | 44.58 | 68.60 | 90.71 | 95.39 | 158.05 | 163.56 | 102.41 | 180.97 | 192.17 |
| YoY % | +48.9% | +53.9% | +32.2% | +5.2% | +65.7% | +3.5% | -37.4% | +76.7% | +6.2% |
Stock 3 Year Rolling CAGR
| Metric | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18.46% | 19.64% | 16.40% | 18.35% | 18.76% | 10.01% | 6.95% | 7.47% | 14.51% |
| EBITDA | 22.32% | 31.17% | 33.84% | 20.09% | 16.65% | 4.06% | 12.97% | 31.73% | 21.60% |
| FCF | -1.23% | 22.54% | 50.04% | 14.44% | – | – | – | – | 21.45% |
| EPS | 56.50% | 58.74% | 70.50% | 27.85% | 23.55% | -22.58% | 10.49% | 78.64% | 37.96% |
| Price | – | 31.85% | 26.72% | 11.62% | 20.33% | 19.69% | -13.47% | 3.43% | 14.31% |
