Company Introduction
Headquarters Location: Santa Clara, California, USA
Core Business Summary: AMD is a semiconductor company that designs, manufactures, and markets high-performance computing, graphics, and visualization technologies.
Overview
$211.51
121.75
1.74
$343.25B
Company Overview
Industry Sector: Semiconductors
Industry Trends
Industry Growth: The global semiconductor market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2022 to 2027.
Key Demand Drivers: Gaming, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G connectivity
Major Competitors: Intel, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm
Financials
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.99B | $4.27B | $5.33B | $6.48B | $6.73B | $9.76B | $16.43B | $23.60B | $22.68B | $25.79B |
| YoY % | +7.0% | +24.8% | +21.6% | +3.9% | +45.0% | +68.3% | +43.6% | -3.9% | +13.7% | |
| EBITDA | $-319.00M | $-237.00M | $348.00M | $621.00M | $889.00M | $1.57B | $4.00B | $1.32B | $401.00M | $5.26B |
| YoY % | +25.7% | +246.8% | +78.4% | +43.2% | -99.8% | +154.8% | -67.0% | +30,278.8% | -98.7% | |
| FCF | $-333.00M | $13.00M | $-45.00M | $-129.00M | $276.00M | $777.00M | $3.22B | $3.12B | $1.12B | $2.41B |
| YoY % | +103.9% | -446.2% | -186.7% | +314.0% | +181.5% | -99.6% | -3.1% | -64.1% | +115.2% | |
| EPS | -0.53 | -0.15 | 0.16 | 0.46 | 0.64 | 1.29 | 2.80 | 3.54 | 2.65 | 3.32 |
| YoY % | +71.7% | +206.7% | +187.5% | +39.1% | +101.6% | +117.1% | +26.4% | -25.1% | +25.3% |
Growth Drivers
Historical Drivers: Product innovation (e.g., Ryzen 5000 series), new market entry (e.g., data center market), and strategic partnerships (e.g., with Microsoft and Sony)
Future Drivers: Expected growth in cloud gaming, AI adoption, and 5G deployment, with a potential CAGR of 12.1% from 2022 to 2025
Market Position
Competitive Position: AMD is the second-largest player in the x86 CPU market, with an estimated market share of 24.6% in Q4 2022
Technological Moat: AMD's strong product portfolio, including its Zen architecture, and its partnerships with major OEMs and cloud providers
Strengths
- Strong product portfolio
- Growing data center presence
- Strategic partnerships
- Increasing cash flow
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a few large customers
- Intense competition
- Regulatory risks
- Cyclical exposure
Valuations
Valuations for AMD
| Formula | Bull | Base | Bear | Margin of Safety |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Graham | $49.59 | $49.59 | $18.27 | -326.5% |
| Peter Lynch | – | $88.51 | – | -139.0% |
Rule of thumb (Lynch):
PEG ≈ 1 → Fairly valued
PEG < 1 → Undervalued (growth cheap relative to earnings)
PEG > 1.5 → Overvalued
Outlook
Opportunities: Growing demand for cloud gaming, AI, and 5G connectivity, with a potential CAGR of 12.1% from 2022 to 2025
Risks: Intense competition, regulatory risks, and cyclical exposure to the semiconductor market
Horizon: 3-5 years
Stock Price Performance
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 2.83 | 14.64 | 9.53 | 26.36 | 43.66 | 81.09 | 108.19 | 96.56 | 183.34 | 102.78 |
| YoY % | +417.3% | -34.9% | +176.6% | +65.6% | +85.7% | +33.4% | -10.7% | +89.9% | -43.9% |
Stock 3 Year Rolling CAGR
| Metric | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.12% | 14.87% | 8.10% | 14.67% | 34.65% | 34.21% | 11.34% | 2.99% | 16.37% |
| EBITDA | – | – | 36.70% | 36.32% | 65.02% | -5.70% | -53.53% | 58.56% | 22.90% |
| FCF | – | – | – | – | 126.80% | 58.86% | -29.65% | -8.26% | 36.94% |
| EPS | – | – | 58.74% | 41.02% | 63.55% | 40.00% | -1.82% | -2.12% | 33.23% |
| Price | – | 49.89% | 21.66% | 66.08% | 45.44% | 35.32% | 5.99% | 19.22% | 34.80% |
